Building Damage Potential

This metric estimates the potential for building loss and was derived using proprietary data from Technosylva Inc. on building damages that was created by analyzing 13 years of building damage data from state agency inspections after large fires.

BDP is a spatially variable metric that is calculated on a buildingby-building basis and aggregated to Uber H3 hexagons, providing a measure of the number of potential buildings lost based on the number of buildings threatened by fires in the specific area. BDP was calibrated using Machine Learning algorithms that identified the key factors that influenced building loss from historical damage inspection databases. The model has been calibrated using 13 years of damage inspection data and validated across multiple Western States with current wildfire data.

BDP is available as a static risk layer, although a key factor involved in the metric is conditional fire behavior. Conditional Flame Length derived in the fire behavior analysis conducted for the 2022 CO-WRA was used. However, the metric can also be used as a dynamic layer when modulated by the fire intensity of an active wildfire through conventional fire behavior analysis. Although applied as a static layer for the 2022 CO-WRA, the metric is used operationally in California by state agencies and private industry for risk forecasting.